August 2026 ONS: NEETs Fall Back Below One Million, but the Year on Year Trend Still Points Up

The latest ONS figures show 981,000 young people aged 16 to 24 were NEET in April to June 2026, down 30,000 on the quarter but up 30,000 on the year. The quarterly fall is almost entirely a fall in inactivity.

  • 981,000 young people aged 16 to 24 are NEET, down 30,000 on the quarter but up 30,000 on the year
  • 13.0% NEET rate, down 0.5 percentage points on the quarter, up 0.2 points on the year
  • Economically inactive NEETs fall 28,000 on the quarter to 588,000, though still up 4,000 on the year
  • Unemployed NEETs broadly flat on the quarter at 393,000, but up 26,000 on the year
  • Young men still drive the annual increase, up 25,000 to 530,000, against 4,000 for young women
  • Male NEET rate 13.7%, down 0.6 points on the quarter but up 0.4 on the year, against 12.3% for young women
  • 18 to 24 group at 15.2%, with 894,000 young adults NEET
  • LFS outputs moved from official statistics in development to official statistics on 11 August, with no reaccreditation sought

The latest figures released today by the Office for National Statistics show 981,000 young people aged 16 to 24 were not in education, employment or training (NEET) in April to June 2026. That is 13.0% of all young people, down 0.5 percentage points on the quarter but up 0.2 points on the year.

The headline that will travel furthest is that the total has dropped back below one million, three months after passing that mark on the seasonally adjusted measure for the first time in more than a decade. The more useful reading is the annual one. Compared with the same quarter of 2025 there are 30,000 more young people disconnected from both work and study, and the ONS itself advises users to treat single quarter movements in NEET estimates with caution.

The 30,000 quarterly fall is almost entirely a fall in economic inactivity. Inactive NEETs, those not looking for work, dropped 28,000 on the quarter to 588,000. Unemployed NEETs, those actively seeking work, were essentially unchanged, down 2,000 to 393,000.

That is the direct unwinding of last quarter’s movement, when inactivity jumped 66,000 and unemployment fell. On a single quarter view the two data points cancel each other out, which is a reasonable illustration of why the ONS keeps asking users to look at the trend rather than the swing.

The annual picture is where the composition has genuinely shifted. Over the year, unemployed NEETs are up 26,000 while inactive NEETs are up just 4,000. In other words, almost all of the annual growth in the NEET population is now accounted for by young people who are looking for work and not finding it, rather than by young people who have stopped looking. Twelve months ago the concern was detachment. On these numbers the immediate constraint looks more like absorption: the labour market is not taking on the young people who are presenting to it.

Young Men Still Carry the Annual Increase

Of the 30,000 annual rise, 25,000 was among young men. There were 530,000 NEET young men and 451,000 NEET young women in April to June 2026. The male NEET rate stands at 13.7%, up 0.4 percentage points on the year although down 0.6 on the quarter, against 12.3% for young women, which is broadly unchanged on the year and down 0.3 on the quarter.

The gender split within the unemployment figure is stark. Of the 393,000 unemployed NEETs, 252,000 were young men and 141,000 were young women, and the annual increase of 26,000 breaks down as 24,000 young men and 3,000 young women. On inactivity the pattern inverts: 310,000 young women against 278,000 young men, with both groups up 2,000 on the year.

So young men are increasingly visible in the system, looking for work and being counted as unemployed. Young women remain more likely to be economically inactive and therefore less likely to appear at a jobcentre or a provider at all. Those are two different problems, and they call for two different responses.

Young Adults Still Carry the Higher Rate

The 18 to 24 age group accounts for 894,000 of the total, down 33,000 on the quarter but up 17,000 on the year. At 15.2% the rate fell 0.6 percentage points on the quarter and is broadly unchanged on the year. The gap between this rate and the headline 13.0% is a reminder that the pressure sits with young adults past the participation age, not with 16 and 17 year olds still inside compulsory participation.

A Change in How These Statistics Are Badged

There is a methodological development in this release worth flagging for anyone who cites these numbers in bids, board papers or policy submissions.

On 11 August the ONS wrote to the Office for Statistics Regulation about the designation of Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey outputs. These statistics were previously badged official statistics in development. They are now designated official statistics, and the ONS has confirmed it will not seek reaccreditation for LFS and APS based outputs. Its stated priority is instead to get the Transformed Labour Force Survey, the online first replacement, to the standard required for accredited official statistics status.

The ONS also confirms that an operational error in May 2026 led to temporary under resourcing in LFS telephone collection, though its analysis so far indicates minimal impact on the headline estimates. Achieved sample size rose from 80,078 individuals in January to March 2026 to 81,193 in April to June 2026, close to pre pandemic response levels. NEET estimates have also been revised back to January to March 2020 following a seasonal adjustment review, so quarter on quarter comparisons against previously published figures will not always line up exactly.

In practice this means the numbers are better resourced than they were two years ago, but the sector should not read the change in designation as a signal that granular breakdowns such as NEET have become more precise. They remain a small subgroup of the sample, and remain volatile.

Three things follow for senior leaders in the FE and skills sector.

First, the annual growth is now in unemployment, not inactivity. If more young people are actively seeking work while the total keeps rising, the binding constraint is the availability of entry points, not motivation. Employer engagement, work placements and progression routes into real vacancies matter more this quarter than outreach does.

Second, outreach still matters, and it matters disproportionately for young women. With 310,000 economically inactive young women who are NEET, provision that depends on people presenting themselves will keep missing a large part of the cohort. Childcare, flexible study patterns and health linked support remain the practical levers.

Third, resist the temptation to treat the sub one million headline as good news. A 30,000 quarterly fall against a 30,000 annual rise, in a series the ONS describes as volatile, is not a turning point. It is a data point.

The next NEET release is scheduled for 26 November 2026. Alan Milburn’s solutions report, following his interim diagnostic published in May, is expected in early autumn, and the Youth Guarantee remains in its implementation phase. Between them, those two will set the framework the sector is asked to deliver against, and the November figures will be the first read on whether anything has moved.

Chris Goulden, Deputy CEO at Youth Futures Foundation, said:

“The latest figures show that around 981,000 young people across the country are currently locked out of earning or learning – the highest figure for this quarter since 2013. This is a stark reminder that, despite small fluctuations in the data, the youth employment challenge remains a large, long-term problem. 

“Hundreds of thousands of young people are continuing to miss out on the opportunity to earn, learn and build a secure future, leaving long-term scarring effects on their wellbeing, health and earning prospects. But behind the statistics are young people facing real and often complex barriers to entering and staying in education, training and employment.

“The Government has started to rightly focus on expanding technical pathways, building on its delivery of the Youth Guarantee. It has also set out a strong, positive direction of travel on strengthening links between young people and employers. However, as anticipation grows ahead of Alan Milburn’s final Young People and Work report, these figures provide another clear signal that system-level reform is essential, if we’re to see numbers fall sustainably. This will require long-term action from Government, employers, education and training providers, local communities and more.

“We need to build on what works, using evidence to target action where it is needed most and making sure every young person can access the right support and opportunities to move forward.”

Richard Hamer MBE, HR Director of Education and Skills at BAE Systems, said: 

“The latest ONS data is a stark reminder that too many young people are left without the opportunities and support needed to move forward in life. These numbers also underscore the importance of partnerships across industry, government and education to strengthen pathways into work.

“Apprenticeships are one of the most powerful tools we have to do that. I’ve seen firsthand the difference these opportunities can make – providing the option to earn while you learn, gain qualifications and develop practical skills. Perhaps more importantly, they build confidence and resilience which cannot always be taught or found elsewhere.

“We have over 6,800 people in early careers programmes across the UK and are committed to helping even more young people find their footing, including through work placements and outreach to schools. At a time of economic uncertainty, widening access to high-quality opportunities is not just the right thing to do for the next generation – it is vital for the long-term success of industry.”

Ben Harrison, Director, the Work Foundation at Lancaster University, said:

“Today’s figures indicate there are no quick fixes to the youth employment crisis facing the UK. The number of young people out of education, employment or training may have dipped just below one million, but it would be a mistake to assume this is a turning point as it remains 30,000 higher than a year ago.

“Although more young people are now looking for work than a year ago, they are doing so at a particularly difficult moment to take their first steps into the labour market. Work Foundation research indicates the number of ‘starter’ jobs accessible to people entering work for the first time has fallen by 49% over the last decade, leaving only one starter vacancy for every three NEET young people nationally.

“And although nearly three quarters (73%) of employers recognise youth worklessness as a national crisis, over a third (36%) report having cut entry-level jobs in the last year. For young jobseekers, facing repeated rejection and struggling to secure a foothold in work can be particularly demoralising.

“This decline in employment opportunities is critical, as without improving young people’s access to secure jobs, it will be very challenging to sustainably reduce the number of young people outside the labour market. Government and employers must therefore focus urgently on expanding the quantity and quality of entry-level opportunities available to them.

“In particular, to ensure the Jobs Guarantee genuinely strengthens the first rungs on the jobs ladder for young people, it must create additional, secure jobs that provide realistic routes to sustained employment and progression. And there is scope for Government to provide additional support to employers to improve recruitment, induction, mentoring and workplace adjustments to help ensure these workplace policies are not creating additional barriers to young people seeking work.”

Susannah Hardyman MBE, CEO of Impetus, said: 

“As the numbers of young people neither earning nor learning continue to rise, the costs to the public purse will only grow unless the Government acts. The consequences are not just devastating for young people themselves – they carry a huge and growing cost for the taxpayer. 

“We estimate that each young person who becomes NEET costs the state an average of £244,000 over their lifetime, through lost tax revenues and higher welfare, NHS and criminal justice costs. With more than one million young people currently NEET, the scale of this financial challenge is staggering. 

 “For those young people furthest from the world of work, particularly those facing socioeconomic disadvantage, low qualifications and special educational needs and disabilities, the right support needs to be offered as early as possible, starting in school. These young people are more likely to become NEET – but this can change. 

“Investing in young people is both the right thing to do an economic imperative, giving young people the support they need to stay in education and move into work can prevent a lifetime of lost opportunity, while reducing the billions of pounds in future costs to the state.” 

Simon Ashworth, AELP Deputy Chief Executive and Director of Policy said: 

“While the slight fall in the number of young people not in education, employment or training is welcome, there are still nearly one million young people on the sidelines, and that number remains higher than a year ago.

“This highlights why it is critical that the Autumn Budget provides additional investment to support the significant recommendations we expect from the Milburn Review. Simply redistributing existing skills funding away from adults is not the answer when around 80% of the workforce we will rely on in 2040 is already in work today.”

Original source August 2026 ONS: NEETs Fall Back Below One Million, but the Year on Year Trend Still Points Up

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